The other day while flipping through TV channels, i came across the World Economic Forum India Economic Summit Debate , a 3 day event which recently happened in New Delhi. The focus of that session was whether India was hungry for super power status . Due to my interest in International Affairs and especially India's relationship with Global world, I decided to stop flipping the channels and started watching the debate.
The panel , quite distinguished ,had Rahul Bajaj, Chairman of Bajaj Motors, Dr. Anil Gupta, Prof Strategy , Insead, Singapore, Shoma Chaudhary, Managing Editor of Tehleka ( remember Tarun Tejpal? ) , Sudha Pillai of Planning Commission and Shekhar Gupta of India Express along woth Nik Gowing of BBC World News UK.
Having heard some of the points and comments made by them , i could not help but thought about the comparison between the BRIC nations and how their Geopolitical position coupled with other factors will place them on the superpower list .
Thus i decided to write this piece to put across these nations and mention out some of the factors which could help me move in achieving the all important OECD Developed Country Tag and also in process gain more global and political clout in world affairs.
Superpower in my words defines a nation state which not only safeguards its national interests but also works towards the greater good of the region, union or the global interests . Not only they possess superior military and diplomatic clout, they also act as torchbearers for global economy and function as policeman to nation states againsts rogue organisations and combat global conflicts . Ok I am not Political science student yet , so i my definition may not be completely correct.
Also Superpower is too generic term to describe any country . There is political, economic, social, developmental ramnifications to entire debate . So to label a country superpower without considering all factors is all too generic .
Anyways i decided to do the following exercise wherein i will try to compare the nations based on factors like education , geopolitics of its region, development, economic clout , political clout on global affairs, domestic environment etc .
So I thought about India first and here were the some of the initial thoughts which i had
INDIA: As a permanent member of security council ?
My first reaction? Nah ? Not possible atleast in near future?
why ?
1. Geopolitics of the South Asia.
One of the biggests problems India have which will impede its ambition for global powerhouse of 21st Century is its geography .
Yes, India's Geopolitical problems will probably supersede and will decide the way how INdia will implement and even change the way its foreign policy is conducted with its neighbours, .
Come to think of it, India is the only major country in the world which is situated in such a neighbourhood where each of it considers India as threat . To put it other way, one of the ways which a nation progresses in achieving global clout is by maintaining good relations with its neighbouring country , be it militarily, diplomatically, trade and development wise, economic wise and even on cultural exchange wise ( Think Germany-Austria economic relations, UK-Ireland, China-South Korea Trade, US-Canada etc ) . Notice that some of them have hatred, rivalry, past history of bloodshed but on today's front they try to use it their advantage the cultural, historical relationship in a positive one. India unfortunately is not so lucky .
India boasts of Pakistan, Sri Lanka, China, Bangladesh , Nepal as its neighbours , Barring Nepal , none of them are allys. Worse we have had wars/conflicts/tensions with each one of them in last 63 years . Although India and China are having weak political relationship ( Arunachal Pradesh, Dalai Lama and Tibet still are the thorns between the nations), Economically , this could be a partnership which India should not afford to lose, China is India's second biggest trading partner after UAE and the Trade between the nations is setting the trend of whats to come in future when the manufactuing hub of china meets services hub of India. Thus its imperative for India to improve its economic relationship with its Asian Neighbour and this could also be decisive step in India's pursuit of UNSC seat if China and India remain on good terms on trade wise. Yes, China will still object to India's claim due to power shift in South Asian Politics but if trade develops to something better in future between nations, China might still end up not "rejecting" .
On other fronts, relationship with Pakistan will be something which will define the way South Asia will move in this century, with Af-Pak / US/ NATO all involved, India might be actually be relieved its not spending its time in Af-pak politics although India is doing lot of development activities along with UN which stakes it claim with any pie which the region offers . Definitely , This relationship and how US , China and even Russia will evolve something with Pakistan and Taliban will determine India's power in the region. It could well be the litmus test for India to see if it can try to rise and maintain its status as Regional Power and as well as Soft Power.
Thus, it remains critical how India's Foreign Policy with Pakistan evolves as time goes which will determine how the region will shape . With China working to increasing its friendship with its karakoram neighbour and taken the relationship to the next level ( the development of gwadar port ,and linking gwadar with urumqi as the long haul infrastructure link between the isolated western China and arabian sea) , It will be interesting how india handles both its neighbours .
2. Economy vs Governance
India's economy is the shining bright beacon in this period of financial and economical doom and gloom. Post liberalisation in 1991, India has managed to achieve astounding success on growth . Maintaining a healthy 6-8% growth during 2007-2010 crisis indicated the stability and optimism the nation has when compared to some other nations.
Yes, we all have seen the way cities like Gurgaon, Bangalore have taken the world by storm. Unfortunately the very growing economy brought out the loopholes of our system. Even though we seem to grow 8%-9% economic wise, our governance is not even matching up to half the growth set by economy and this will what probably impede India's bid for superpower. India seem to be the only country where Electricty lost is so huge that it actually can be accountable as % of GDP lost . We also seem to have infrastructure which is at best described as " basic" . Our urban infrastructure is turning out to be a nightmare and if not solved very soon , it will be become a limping leg to the healthy body .
We need atleast 20 metros rolled out in next 5 years , not to mention to upgradation of countless national highways into expressways/which could help trade and goods improve its efficiency. More importantly we need a sound governance system, which would enable the maintenance of its infrastructure. Unfortunately to be blunt , It would take us quite some decades to achieve this , the factors which would also depend on how the next point is tackled.
Thus while India’s growth rate is marching forward, its also carrying the infection of the governance, failure to cure would cripple the very health of the indicator which India is thriving in its current day.
Continued Next Post
